Anyone that knows me will be aware that I have an unhealthy fascination with the Weather. I suspect that you will see this in a lot of my photographs. So I have decided to post a monthly Weather Forecast here. I have no qualifications and little knowledge of technical terms but let’s see how I do. I can’t get it more wrong than the Daily Express anyway.
First of all, something not Weather related. This month sees the return of the annual Perseids Meteor Shower. In fact it peaks this weekend. Sadly for most of us the incoming storm is likely to lead to skies that are too cloudy to do any serious observing (I was looking forward to laying on the roof with a bottle of wine and some music this year but I would likely get quite damp and uncomfortable) however, if you are lucky enough to get clear skies it may be worth you taking a look.
These are usually bright Meteors so even in built up areas you will have a chance of spotting one or two. Another fly in the star gazing ointment is the fact that this weekend see’s the 2nd of three ‘Super-moon’s. This is where the elliptical orbit of the moon brings it closer to earth than usual. The August approach is the closest this year so moonlight may pollute your view. On a side note: If you see stupid Facebook messages about Super moons please don’t pass them on. They are trash and just clutter up peoples news feed!
The next big news about this weekend (August 8th) is the approach of former hurricane Bertha! Now as usual the tabloid press have hyped up the country and now it’s difficult to get accurate information due to there being so much trash about. Essentially the forecast for Bertha is as follows.
There is a storm approaching. It might hit the North of the country, It might go South or maybe go straight over the middle! It all depends on whether it gets caught up in the Jet stream. This is not a Hurricane. It isn’t even a tropical storm any more. It’s a depression! It will bring some windy weather and rain. Now, as the trees are still in full leaf this may cause some disruption. Leaves act like sails (keeping the boating theme going here. Did you spot it?) and so catch the wind which may cause some trees to fall and broken branches. Advice, don’t park yourself under a tree! If this storm were hitting us in the late Autumn or Winter it would have less impact as it would just be normal weather! The rain may also cause some problems. Beneath the path of the storm we are likely to see rainfall totals of 40 – 50mm. This is a lot of water to be falling onto dry earth so it is likely that we will see some flash flooding. Make sure that you check your mooring ropes, and be aware you may need to check them more frequently, especially if the wind is buffeting you around. If the storm keeps to a southerly course it looks like it will lose power and we will just have some wet windy weather. If it tracks North it is likely that the winds will be stronger, possibly gale force so a lot more disruption is likely. As for which way it goes, I’m afraid I can’t tell you that. Keep an eye on your local forecasts and be prepared. Finally, coastal areas are going to get the brunt of the wind so big Sea’s are probable. Where this combines with Spring Tides there is the possibility of coastal flooding so anyone in the Tidal reaches of rivers in the South West please be careful.
For this forecast I am going to divide the UK into 2 parts. Let’s call them East & West. East covers most of the UK from The Isle of White in the South, up through Birmingham to Dounreay in Scotland. The West is obviously what’s left of the UK & Ireland.
The East of this line it it probably going to be warmer than the average August with more sunshine and less rain. To the West of this line I expect average temperatures but a little more cloud and rain than you would normally get in the last month of Summer. Now your local average temperatures are going to vary according to where you are in the country and your local Geography so I can’t give you any specific figures. If you want to know what the local figures are for your region I suggest that you ask a well known search engine.
This pretty much covers the next couple of weeks. The last week of August looks like it’s going to be a bit more changeable. There is a chance that we will see a warm & dry Bank Holiday but after that we see traditional Autumn weather drifting in. Don’t be surprised if it becomes cooler and wetter.
UPDATE: Though there is still time to change it looks like the worst of the weather will be taking the middle route over the country. This is a fast moving storm so while Sunday will be affected quite severely by Monday most of us should see the back of it. The far North of Scotland will be the last affected and in turn the last to clear. Southern counties should be aware that gale force winds will be incoming bringing heavy rain and big seas. As it passes over the country some of the force will be lost however as this is a former Tropical storm there is a hell of a lot of moisture contained within therefore some impressive rainfall totalls are likely. Scotland will probably see winds returning to gale or severe gale force late Sunday / early Monday along with that wet weather. Any sunshune you are seeing today is actually the ‘calm before the storm’ though in the south last nights rain and todays breeze may disguise that.
Stay safe everyone.